Afrobarometer recently released the findings from it's 2008 Round 4 Survey of Uganda. There were a number of interesting results. Among the most interesting to me were those on trust in government institutions, a major increase in support for presidential term limits since 2005, and the lack of NRM support in urban areas.
"Museveni not likely to win clear majority in 2011 elections" was the Daily Monitor's headline for a special report on the poll.
Trust in government institutions fell since the 2005 Afrobarometer survey across the board -- 20 percentage points or more for the president, the ruling party, the courts, the police and the electoral commission. Trust in the opposition party increased slightly, but was also was the least "trusted" to begin with.
Overall, it appears people are tiring of the incompetence and corruption of the ruling party, but the lack of support for the opposition suggests they do not yet see another good option outside of NRM. With less than 2 years until the 2011 elections, now is the time for the opposition to get serious about their campaign.
More analysis to come...
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